Modern war really begins with the American Civil War.  This is the first war in which the both sides drafted the masses into their armies to expand them and then refill the ranks.  They had to “refill the ranks” due to the massive casualties they suffered in every campaign and battle.  Both sides were initially shocked and mortified at how incredibly high the losses were during major battles.

The same thing happened again during the World Wars.  At the start of World War One, the casualty rates were far higher than anyone expected.  And by now it was accepted practice by all countries that when you are in a major war that you draft everyone possible into the Armed Forces.

In both eras, leaders and common people alike were shocked at the numbers of dead and wounded.  Nothing in their prior experience had prepared them for what actually happened.  In both eras this was due to advances in technology that made it much easier and more efficient to kill human beings.

In the American Civil War, this was due to rifled bullets.  Prior to that war, a musket ball had only a remote chance of hitting someone, so armies of old packed together in tight formations so some musket balls would actually hit the enemy.  With rifled bullets, the bullets trajectory was no longer random, and an aimed shot could accurately hit something almost as far away as you could see.  Unfortunately, the armies still continued to use tight formations, as this is what armies then were taught to do.  It wasn’t uncommon in the war for units to take 50% (or more) casualties in a single day long battle.

In the World Wars, machine guns, rapid fire artillery, then tanks and airplanes added new levels of lethality to the battlefield.  Again, no one was really prepared for what the new technology could do.  And again, casualty rates were so high that the wars, in the end, were decided by who ran out of replacement Soldiers first.

In all of these wars, the lion’s share of the casualties are taken by the infantry.  These are the foot soldiers literally on the front line.  They have a rifle or a machine gun.  These days they wear a helmet and maybe some body armor covering their chest and back to protect themselves from some of the dangers they face.  They still have an incredibly short life expectancy once put on the front line in a major war.  In the World Wars, about 80% of the casualties were infantrymen.  Let this sink in.  Eight out of Ten who are injured or die in a major war are the front line foot soldiers.

It has been as long now since the World Wars as it was between the American Civil War and World War Two.  The pace of technological change has only accelerated.  Neither military leaders nor the citizens that could be called to arms have any personal experience with what would happen in a major war when all of the new technology is applied to killing humans on a mass scale.  Losses again will be horrific and the masses will be drafted to expand the armies and replace the fallen.  And there will be countless millions who will fall.

What to Do

The last place you want to be in a major war is in the infantry.  Especially if you have little to no prior military experience.  Your odds of dying or suffering serious injury would be almost 100%.  So you and your loved ones probably want to avoid this experience if possible.

The best way to avoid being drafted into the military as an infantry replacement is to already be in or associated with the military.  Have a military skill OTHER than being a foot soldier.  Join the Reserve Forces and learn how to work radios or repair trucks for example.  It is a decent way to pay for college and learn a backup trade skill.  And it will most probably keep you from being an infantry replacement when they start drafting people off of the streets.

It won’t work if you (or your loved ones) wait until the war starts.  You’ll just be changed to infantry in basic training as the casualty lists grow by the minute.  It’s too late then.

Since World War Two there seems to have been as good a blur between the lines of diplomacy and warfare as has ever existed.  There have been numerous “low intensity conflicts”, widespread terrorism (much of it state sponsored), and recurring saber rattling.  Sometimes, actual Acts of War have been committed, and the offended party has failed to respond, usually out of fear of the damage and consequences of a real war.  Few want a “Real War”.  By “Real War” I mean the modern version of a World War or the American Civil War.

Most wars, including the big “Real” ones, are started due to diplomatic and military miscalculation and lack of clear and level thinking.  Even the little ones are the result of this.  It is important to have clear and reasonably achievable objectives to both your diplomacy and to your use of military force (which, as Clausewitz correctly stated, is an extension of diplomacy).  America’s interventions in Vietnam and more recently Iraq were doomed because the objectives were either unclear (Vietnam) or not reasonable (turning Iraq into a democracy).

American foreign policy (its diplomatic strategy) has had serious problems since the end of the Cold War.  The objectives remain rather fuzzy and often unachievable even if they are clear.  One such objective seems to be the American desire to protect everyone, everywhere, from bad things.  “Bad Things” have included genocide, famine, terror, and repression.  America has in many ways attempted to be the world’s policeman, although what it polices and how it carries this out changes from administration to administration.  The most recent issue is that of the use of poison gas by the Syrian government.

Any country’s main objective should always be the protection of itself and its citizens, territory, and commerce.  These are clear and reasonable objectives.  A country can quickly get caught up in quagmires when it moves beyond these to unclear or unreasonable objective, and that can easily happen when it decides to intervene due to “Bad Things” happening somewhere.

“Bad Things” happen on a frequent basis in the world.  Pol Pot killed millions (as did other dictators like Stalin and Mao).  Famine is frequent, and often caused by civil wars.  Terrorism and Anarchy also regularly occur.  Some countries even use “bad weapons” in civil wars.

So when should a country intervene, especially militarily?  If it is not to protect its citizens, territory, and/or its commerce, it probably shouldn’t.  Getting involved militarily in somebody else’s civil war is, and always has been, a recipe for international and internal disaster.  I feel sorry for foreign civilians who are subjected to famine, torture, poison gas, and so on, but do I think that we should go to war to try and stop such things?  The answer is no.  Acts of War committed by one country against another are different, that IS the RED LINE, and does call for military action.

A grey area is actively working to prevent others from similarly intervening.  Peoples do have a right to self determination and self defense against repression.  Those oppressing them should not be allowed to bring in outsiders to do so.

The other grey area is supporting uprisings.  When people rise up against oppression and denial of their right to self determination, I believe that we can aid and assist such people.  But we should NOT do so with our own forces.

What to Do

We should not be going to war, or even putting ourselves on track to do so, because some dictator is committing atrocities against his own people.  We should help those people however we can, but NOT through direct military action.

The mess in Syria is far greater than it should be because the United States allowed,under the Obama administration, Foreign Powers, namely Russia and Iran, to directly intervene.  This could have been prevented, but was not.

I cannot believe that getting into a direct confrontation with the Russians over Syrian chemical weapon use is a wise course of action at this point.  Do we really want to risk a “Real War” over this?  I certainly don’t.  I feel bad for the Syrian civilians, but I am not going to risk my life or my family’s lives over them.